The 2023 box office could benefit from various Marvel movie releases. Here’s a prediction for how much money each film from MCU and Sony will make.
Marvel movies have become some of the biggest box office hits over the last two decades, and here is how much 2023’s Marvel movies could make. The brand’s popularity has enabled the various Marvel movie franchises to combine to earn billions of dollars each year. While these totals are mainly done through the Marvel Cinematic Universe, Sony’s independent Spider-Man Universe has also delivered some sizable box office hits in recent years. 2018 is the cream of the crop, as the Marvel movies released that year combined to make over $6 billion at the worldwide box office.
The 2022 superhero box office was slightly disappointing as no superhero movies made over $1 billion – the first time since 2017 (excluding 2020’s limited COVID slate). With multiple new films from the MCU as Phase 5 begins, the highly anticipated sequel to Sony’s Oscar-winning animated film Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, and a new potential Spider-Man villain franchise starter, the 2023 Marvel movie lineup is stacked once again. There is reason for optimism that this will result in some of these films being among the year’s highest-grossing movies. So, let’s predict how much money every Marvel 2023 movie will make at the box office.
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Box Office Prediction: $1 Billion
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania’s box office potential is quite significant as the first movie in Phase 5. The Ant-Man franchise has never been one of the MCU’s highest earning franchises. Still, the threequel’s use of Kang the Conqueror (Jonathan Majors) and its important role in helping push the Multiverse Saga forward have created high expectations. It helps that the movie has limited competition regarding major tentpoles once it releases on February 17, 2023, as the next superhero movie does not release for another month. The film does not have a Chinese release secured, which could hurt the top end of its performance.
Looking at the Ant-Man franchise’s box office history specifically, there is no doubt that Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania will become the highest grossing entry in the trilogy. The first movie made $519M worldwide in 2015, and the sequel jumped to $622M when it arrived in 2018 a few months after Avengers: Infinity War. That accounts for a 19 percent rise between installments. The average first film of a new MCU Phase makes $833M, but each title has a high variance. However, this is still an excellent potential barometer for a realistic outcome for the movie’s box office.
The low end of the 2023 Marvel movie’s box office haul is likely $750M. This would allow it to have a similar increase between entries as in the first and second. Each MCU 2022 movie surpassed this mark too. If the threequel follows MCU box office patterns when it comes to closing out solo trilogies, its box office will be much higher. The average third film in an MCU solo trilogy makes $1.2 billion after a 163 percent increase compared to its predecessor. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania’s box office could settle at just over $1 billion with the same type of performance and a Chinese release.
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Box Office Prediction: $1.2 Billion
The 2023 Marvel movie with the greatest box office potential might be Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3. James Gunn has made the franchise a consistent performer and turned the ragtag group into some of the MCU’s most popular characters. As one of the most anticipated movies releasing in 2023, Guardians of the Galaxy 3 has the coveted first weekend of May release slot that Marvel loves. It will be met with tough competition when Fast X releases two weeks later, but there is still room for the final entry in the trilogy to dominate screens and draw huge crowds.
So far, the Guardians of the Galaxy franchise has established a strong baseline for Guardians of the Galaxy 3’s box office prospects. The first movie made $773M in 2014, and the sequel earned $863M three years later. Using similar data as Ant-Man 3, the Guardians movies experienced an 11 percent jump between the first and second films at the box office. That projection model would then indicate that Guardians of the Galaxy 3 will make $964M worldwide if a similar jump occurs. The only point against this type of performance could be the MCU’s need to make up for money lost if the film is not released in China.
Predicting how much money this 2023 Marvel movie will make at the box office is a bit more complicated. Guardians of the Galaxy 3 does face stiffer competition, but it would make over $1.4 billion if it performs as strongly as other third entries in MCU trilogies. That mark seems a bit rich on the surface, even for a release voted as the most anticipated 2023 movie. Due to its stronger competition and the possibility of it not making the $90-$100M that previous Guardians of the Galaxy films earned in China, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3’s box office could settle around $1.1-$1.2 billion.
Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse Box Office Prediction: $600 Million
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is positioned to be a big performer thanks to the sequel securing a June 2 release date. Sony released the first movie in December 2018, allowing the Oscar-winning animated film to become a surprise hit as families were on Christmas break. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse earned $384M in that spot, but expectations are much higher for Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. The sequel could benefit from a big bump that some animated movies receive due to kids not being in school in the summer. The bad news is that another superhero movie (The Flash) and Disney’s new animated movie, Elemental, release just two weeks later.
Assuming that Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is a similar level of quality as the first and the various multiverse Spider-Man cameos drive more interest, there is a reasonable expectation that the 2023 Marvel movie will make at least $500M. June has historically been a great month to release animated movies, as six made over $1 billion in a similar release slot since Toy Story 3 did it first in 2010. That would be quite the feat for Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse to accomplish but likely not realistic. Instead, a $600M haul is possible if the franchise goes on a similar trajectory as How to Train Your Dragon.
The Marvels Box Office Prediction: $950 Million
How much money The Marvels makes at the box office in 2023 will be fascinating to see. The first Captain Marvel surpassed all expectations in 2019 and made $1.1B in the months leading up to Avengers: Endgame. This happened despite the mixed reviews and trolls review-bombing the movie on Rotten Tomatoes as audiences responded positively with their money for the MCU’s first female-led superhero movie. While The Marvels does get a chance to be the last big blockbuster release of the summer, it comes after Barbie, Oppenheimer, and Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, which could hurt its opening.
There are a few different worthy comparisons and figures to discuss when determining The Marvels’ box office. MCU solo franchise sequels have, on average, made $799M worldwide and increased 35 percent compared to the original. However, the MCU just had an exception to this rule with Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. The movie had a nearly 40 percent drop compared to the original Black Panther, as it made $820M compared to $1.3B. Chadwick Boseman’s death and losing the franchise star, coupled with the film’s release in a post-COVID marketplace, are two potential explanations for Black Panther 2’s box office dip.
This points to two very different potential outcomes for The Marvels when determining how much money the 2023 Marvel movie will make at the box office. If it follows the MCU second installment increase trend, The Marvels will make $1.4B. If it takes a similar dip as Black Panther 2, then the Captain Marvel sequel would only bring in $686M. The actual result of The Marvels’ box office is likely somewhere in between. A 40 percent drop is nearly unthinkable with Brie Larson and more returning, but a 10-20 percent drop is feasible without China and increased competition. That would mean a final haul between $900M and $1B.
Kraven the Hunter Box Office Prediction: $400 Million
Kraven the Hunter is the last 2023 Marvel movie and could be an important sliding door moment for Sony, depending on how much money it makes. The Spider-Man villain film stars Aaron Taylor-Johnson and is confirmed for an October 2023 release date. While general audiences are not familiar with the character, Kraven the Hunter faces little competition in terms of major franchises. The question that Sony will be left to figure out is if Kraven is a new Venom-level franchise starter or a Morbius-equivalent franchise killer.
Sony found great success with the first Venom in 2018, as it made over $850M worldwide. This success helped push Kraven the Hunter into development, and Venom: Let There Be Carnage’s $506M earnings were a promising sign after COVID. However, Morbius was one of 2022’s biggest box office flops, as it made less than $175M. The first weekend of October release window is where Sony found success with the Venom franchise. But since Kraven is not as big of a pop culture figure as Venom, Kraven the Hunter’s box office prediction should be around $400M. That could go up if Spider-Man or Venom appears in the 2023 Marvel movie.
source: screenrant.com
